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Births Down on Eve of Year of the Black Dragon

The number of births dropped for the third straight month in November compared to a year earlier, presumably due to the recession.

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Statistics Korea on Thursday said some 37,500 babies were born in November 2011, down 9.2 percent on-year. The number of births also fell in September (-3 percent) and October (-5 percent).

The reason was probably that "many married couples were concerned about economic slowdown and ensuing childcare expenses", according to Seo Woon-joo of Statistic Korea.

The theory is corroborated by the fact that only births dropped, but not marriages. The number of marriages during the July-December period in 2010, the most important variable affecting the birthrate in the September-November period last year, increased by between 0.3 and 3.3 percent a month compared to the previous year.

The birthrate looks set to keep falling, since once any trend gets going it usually continues for more than a year. The number of births fell for 24 months from March 2008 to February 2010, but rose for 18 straight months from March 2010 to August 2011.

But superstitions surrounding the "Year of the Black Dragon", which arrives for the first time in 60 years, could change that. Some 493,200 babies were born in 2007, the Year of the Golden Pig, and 470,200 in 2010, the Year of the White Tiger -- both exceeding average of 459,500 between 2005 and 2010.

"Some parents may be timing the pregnancy so the baby is born in the Year of the Black Dragon", said Seo. "We'll have to watch the trend for a few months".

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