Korea 'to Reach $30,000 Per-Capita GDP Next Year'
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The economy may be sputtering, but the Ministry of Strategy and Finance projects Korea's per-capita GDP to surpass US$30,000 in 2018.
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Korea broke the $20,000 mark in 2006 and last year per-capita GDP stood at $27,500.
"Barring another economic crisis, we can definitely surpass the $30,000 level next year", a ministry official said Sunday. But that is based on an ambitious growth projection of 4.6 percent for this year and 4.5 percent for next year.
Per-capita GDP can be affected by the real economic growth rate, inflation, population growth and currency rates. Assuming that the population and exchange rate remain the same, the country could reach the $30,000 milestone next year.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Korea ranked 29th in terms of per-capita GDP last year, above Spain (30th at $27,012) but below Italy (27th at $30,294).
But experts said the goal is tougher to achieve than officials believe. They doubt that the economy will grow as much as the government has projected because it seems apparent that it is stuck in a low-growth cycle.
With the exception of 2014 (3.3 percent), Korea's real economic growth has remained in the two-percent range since 2012.
Sung Tae-yoon at Yonsei University said, "The biggest factor in per-capita GDP is the exchange rate, which is very hard to predict. Considering the present level of household debt and the North Korea risk, the won could weaken, and then per-capita GDP could stay unchanged or fall".